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What do Donald Trump’s tariffs mean for the rest of the world? Will the stock market recover? Are we headed for a global trade war …
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43 comments
You two are business politically it Donald trump US Tariffs it brought you back politically. Is his biggest mistake ever Donald trump US President cause a world slump. Globalization to advanced China work shop all manufacturing industry.
I got to work at 7:30 this morning, and people are upset and fearful about the stock market. It has not deterred me at all, my only question is what stocks do I buy more?
I have watched this video several times. Oh boy, yes, the market swings like the pendulum do!
Yes, China is the largest manufacturer in the world, and we can't play catch-up because these millionaires and billionaires here aren't planning to open manufacturing facilities and factories to produce any products or much needed jobs for our young people.
The global bond market will bankrupt the US Government and tank the USD before the Administration succeeds in reshoring "manufacturing".
Carlo M. Cipolla's fundamental laws of human stupidity have quite remarkable relevance in 2025:
The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity" (1976)
The second essay, "The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity" ("Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana", 1976),[3][4] explores the controversial subject of stupidity.
These are Cipolla's five fundamental laws of stupidity:
Always and inevitably, everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.
The probability that a certain person (will) be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.
A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses. (Yep, tariifs.)
Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular, non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places, and under any circumstances, to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.
A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.
The countries "left out" are those that are not traded with … therefore, the variables in the equation are zero … so they do not figure in the results.
The opposite is also true in that if you sell a few dollars of anything to the US but don't buy anything, the result is infinite … which probably explains the idiotic tariffs on penguins!
The only thing more stupid than AI … is a human to apply a rigid equation and expect there to be no exceptional results!
It is a fatally flawed model (equation) if you leave out trade in services … but of course it would not serve Trump well if it included services.
Absolutely great problem, so good to hear informed intelligent discussion- you do of course know that the expert that Peter Navarro often quotes to justify his obsession with tariffs Ron Vara is an invention. Ron Vara is simply an anagram of Navarro.
The EU is very slow in it's measures but when it gets something going it will get there!
These two exist because of Trump. They run the stock standard outrage for clicks and views model. And please, neither are in any way qualified to comment on economics.
You two are great together. I love listening to Europeans who are confirming what I believe about the Trump Administration. I love Keir Starmer and Mark Carney! Always remember that more people voted against Ttump than for him, too bad we all didn't vote for Harris/Walz.
Americans will work in factories if they are higher wage jobs, sterling, auto, plastic, yes. Clothing, toys, no. I don't think shoes will come back. That industry has been gone 26 years and there isn't anyone left to train that work force.
Some of the worst advice re investing I’ve ever seen
Germany's Merz (head of the executive branch) announced the government will be tightening borders to end irregular migration and refuse entry to asylum seekers, suspending family reunification, lengthening time to get naturalization and increasing repatriation efforts. Anybody know why?
Instant gratification is Trump’s thing. He’s not a genius. For heaven’s sake Alastair! He can’t look ahead.
Guy's, the aid workers were executed, they didn't lose their lives, their lives taken, they were executed…
You are not just talking about a tv personality but also someone who ran around the world with the nuclear weapon launch codes in his last time as president…
I also forgot to mention that Trump was able to change a casino from being a license to print money into a a company that went bankrupt 😅
Rory, are you not a little bit worried about your safety? I see these "disappearances" as team Trump testing the waters. I have a niece who would like to do part of her engineering doctorate in the USA but I'd advise her not to. If they decided to revoke her student visa, because she was born in Brazil and has a Brazilian surname, she won't be sent home to New Zealand, she will be sent to an El Salvadorian prison. I'd be concerned that the same could happen to you. Your visa revoked…which is not the worst thing in the world, but instead of being sent back to jolly old blighty, you wind up in a country you had no intention of visiting, in a prison and no one knows where you are. I think that team trump have been stress testing their courts on "people we don't really carea about" and found them to be ultimately powerless. Now they can move on the the enemies.
This is speech by Lawrence Wong to the Singapore Parliament. It is very clear and succinct in his outlook of what the tariff mean and the impact for Singapore as small country. https://youtu.be/c5GMKzJVQJM?si=AeXZFuq5tncySUjy
Interest rates will go DOWN Rory. Central banks will cut rates to help prevent unemployment/stimulate economy.
These venerable gentlemen havent added 'triffin paradox' to their vocabularies yet; nor considered the Profound consequences of Peak oil
Rory did his conkers betting on harris and now rorys losing his retirement pot. Mans broken
The masterminds behind this tariff policy are yet to reveal the strategy. All the Treasury Secretary Lutnick could do was laugh off the question "was the strategy and formula devised by AI?" but he gave no explanation as to the rationale.
You mention rare earths and some metals being China-dominated.
You also mention bananas. Trump has busily persecuted the Mexican and South Americans who mainly do the agricultural work.
Apart from this Trump has slashed the Social security and dismantled the relevant Department.
Result: CHAOS.
Hi guys. Is there any mechanism; by which we could find out if any of the people who were privy to information regarding Trump's impending tariffs, dumped stocks and shares, prior to world- wide reporting? Maybe a question worth asking. Kx
Alister is so right – the Cabinet sitting there clapping like trained seals was beyond pathetic + disgusting.
The IEEPA does not give the President any tariff powers! It does provide a number of other powers, which NObody wants to see exersized. Congress needs to stop this!
The democracies will still dominate the other players.. with India on their side
BUT Democracy should never rely this much on one of its players.. as that is a single point of failure, in case they fail once in a while.. …Europe has a role here Japan and Korea
Since all currencies and commodities are measured in US dollars to say the dollar is going up or down is like saying slimming makes the kilogram bigger. The dollar is the used as the fundamental unit of value, perhaps unwisely, but it makes no sense to say measured chanes are due to the unit of measure changing ?
Could this be a ruse…it almost sounds like some inside trading short selling…buy low and suddenly pull the tariffs.
Love seeing all the redditors suddenly become tariff experts over night
The USA that gave the world the the 1930's great depression and as a result WW2 and the 2008 economic crash. Both events caused by greed and over evaluation. JK Galbraith's summed it up "the greater the wealth the thicker the dirt.
Hail the Orange one
Trumpism is politics by amphetamine addicts mashing questions into ChatGPT. You'll drive yourself mad trying to spot patterns in it.
I am watching this 3 days late, and since this China have introduced licensing limits on their rare earth minerals they provide, exclusively, to the USA.
OH
Always a brilliant discussion!
Alaister …u shd take the trouble to dress appropriately!
Canada is a parliamentary government similar to the UK.
David Kelly anyone ?
We need to completely turn away from the us in everything, trade and nato.
Time to focus on eu and our partners who actually want and care for a relationship,
Trump's messaging needs a bit work but I'm going against the grain here and say that he is the Gorbechov that America needs.
The Don hopes to establish a Washington papacy
Thank you for an intelligent analysis of this terrible event, heaped on all the other terrible decisions this administration has foisted on us as American citizens, and unfortunately the world's citizens. I thought the first Trump administration was awful, but this has been exponentially worse. I will not be silent or complicit! I personally think that average American citizens have a tremendous amount of economic power. Don't buy anything unless absolutely necessary. If you must buy, try to find the item or groceries from a small local business or farm. Don't give the US government tarrifs to collect and amass! The sooner our economy tanks, the sooner people will demand change. Also- the major corporations will be pressuring the administration if their losses are high. If I was the leader of another nation I would definitely do everything in my power to find other nations to trade with than the USA. If the USA is isolated and grinds to a halt, I can only hope that Trump and his henchmen will implode.